Our Thinking – Investment Outlook

Researched, written, edited (brutally), designed and distributed all in-house. The Investment Outlook report is our quarterly flagship communication that runs a macro look at global economies and ties it back to what the Stanford Brown Investment Committee (SBIC) are thinking on a portfolio level.

 

 

Investment Outlook

  • Quarterly Outlook – Q4 2015

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    While bankers from the Northern Hemisphere were enjoying their summer break on the beaches of Nice and Nantucket, on August 11th the world seemed to take a rapid turn for the worse. A battalion of sorrows emerged in quick succession.

    An overreaction? Or a harbinger of tougher times ahead?

    Keep calm, have a Mao-tai and read on to find out our predictions for global economies, politics and asset class valuations.

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q3 2015

    After a period of benign markets, the twin-headed hydra of a Greek Scylla and a Chinese Charybdis have wreaked havoc in the equity, bond and commodity markets. And what about the Fed? Soon we will face the first US interest rate hike in almost a decade. Is it time to batten down the hatches or is this all just a storm in a China tea cup? Keep calm, have an ouzo and read on to find out our predictions for global economies, politics and asset class valuations.

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q2 2015

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    The Currency Wars have begun in earnest, even dragging our own hawkish Reserve Bank onto the battlefield. Why is every country determined to lower their currencies and what long term effects will this have?  Read on to find out our predictions for global economies, politics and asset class valuations.

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q1 2015

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    Collapsing commodity prices, Russia in crisis, a new gold rush in Silicon Valley, a resurgent American economy, a soaring greenback, Australian assets ignored and unloved, trouble in emerging markets and a powerless Democrat in the White House. Sound familiar? Yes, it could be 1999 all over again.

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q4 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    Volatility is back. Our theme for this quarter’s Outlook is that of dreaming. Financial markets have existed in a dreamlike state for more than five years, lulled to sleep by the soma of Quantitative Easing and ultra-low interest rates. But how much longer will the sleep last and will it eventually turn to a nightmare?

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q3 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    All asset classes have performed well over the past 12 months. The current investment environment is extraordinary. Ten year bond yields traded below 3% in Spain and Italy; the European Central Bank cut its headline rate to minus 0.1%; yet world equities markets soared over 20% and junk bonds now pay less than 6%. What could possibly go wrong?

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q2 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    The equities bull market recently celebrated its fifth birthday. The party’s in full swing but is the punchbowl running dry? Or worse, are the cops about to be called? Every so often an unwelcome guest pokes his head around the door – this time it’s the spectre of a Chinese debt default, a resurgent and increasingly nationalist Russia, plunging biotech stocks and a one-bedroom apartment in Melbourne costing over $1 million.

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  • Quarterly Outlook – Q1 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    The advent of a new year is a time for pause and reflection. The theme of this Quarterly Outlook is anniversaries – and in 2014 we are spoilt for choice. We head back to 1913 – a time of peace and prosperity throughout the West; a time with no Federal Reserve Bank.

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